With fall foliage in full swing on the AU campus, all eyes are on the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Sure, the stakes are practically omnipresent no matter where you go in the US, owing to the $10 billion spent on advertising so far this cycle.

But the election holds particular meaning at the Kogod School of Business, just four miles from the White House. Students and faculty learn and work in close proximity to a major world capital at the crossroads of government and business.

This election holds significant stakes for both, depending on who emerges victorious: Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

With just one day to go until the polls close, here are some of the top issues Kogod’s faculty experts say they’ll be watching—issues that may well hang in the balance based on which candidate is ultimately elected, from finance to climate initiatives and cybersecurity.

Economy

Millions of voters across the country remain concerned about the economy, from frustration over the lingering effects of inflation to the former president’s call for tariffs.

We spoke to Professor Jeff Harris, Gary D. Cohn Goldman Sachs Chair in Finance.

Kogod: What is the most prominent issue economists will be watching if former President Trump is elected?

Harris: Most economists are worried about Trump’s tariff threat. Generally speaking, tariffs have shut down world economies and largely have been recognized as one of the primary causes of the great depression. 

What about Vice President Harris?

If you look at the other side, the concern has been the hangover we still have from inflation. Many people are still blaming, what do they call it: ‘profligate government spending’ of three years ago for adding into the price levels that resulted in inflation. I think there’s some skepticism associated with the inflationary cycle we just went through with the Democratic Party in power.

What immediate concerns do you have about the markets as the election approaches?

One concern I have with the stock market is it seems to be going up. I don’t know if it’s an automatic—people trying to put on blinders and think everything turns out well—but, normally, when you face a situation of uncertainty, prices get discounted because you hate to invest without knowing what the outcome might be, or having a better assessment of the outcome. Generally speaking, I’m concerned that once the resolution happens, the market might correct itself—at least the stock market.

What type of valuable lessons are there for students being in DC at a time like this?

I’m teaching Teaching Investments and grading tests today, and it’s all about risk, uncertainty, and expected return.

I think all that ‘risk’ that we are facing is palpable in the press around here, the environment around campus, and around Washington, DC.