Jon Bruford: Hello, and welcome to The Gambling Files podcast, the podcast that is amidst a wild and crazy World Cup. I'm one of your hosts, Jon Bruford, joined by your other host, who is hilariously located in the Netherlands, Fintan Costello. Fintan, hello.
Fintan Costello: Hello, Jon.
Jon Bruford: Is that slightly orangey t-shirt in solidarity with your fallen comrades in the Netherlands?
Fintan Costello: No.
Jon Bruford: Were you aware that there was a match on last night in the early hours of the morning?
Fintan Costello: I was aware that my son set his alarm clock for 3 a.m. to get up to watch the game and managed to sleep through it.
Jon Bruford: Good lad.
That is quality. I respect that. Yeah, so we're recording this on Tuesday, 30th of June.
So last night, two of the, you can't call them outright favorites, but two of the big tournament teams went out last night on penalty shootouts, which is frankly hilarious. Something we will come back to later on. I shouldn't be saying too much that it's hilarious because you wait and see, England will go out on fucking penalties to the Democratic Republic of Congo on Wednesday.
That would be just my shitting luck, wouldn't it? So Fintan how are you?
Fintan Costello: Good. Good. No complaints.
Jon Bruford: None?
Fintan Costello: None.
Jon Bruford: I've just I've been I've been looking through some general news headlines just before I started recording. I don't know if you want to comment on any of these. We had packed lunches every day for 10 years and retired at 40.
I hope I never meet them because they sound really dull. Hollywood director jailed after scamming Netflix for 8 million.
Fintan Costello: Respect.
Jon Bruford: This one is potentially, potentially, mammoth structure found in deep space challenges our understanding of the universe.
Fintan Costello: Right.
Jon Bruford: And loveliest town in England is also a very underrated food destination.
Any thoughts on that?
Fintan Costello: No, strong opinion, Jon.
Jon Bruford: It's Ludlow, Fintan, my hometown. And to call it an underrated food destination is just fucking stupid. It's incredibly famous as a food destination.
It launched the UK's first food, dedicated food festival, for God's sakes. It's like, this journalist hasn't even used ChatGPT. Shame on you, Metro.
Fintan Costello: Wow, okay.
Jon Bruford: Oh, Ariana Grande is sorry that she's been forced to postpone tour shows.
Only three shows, to be fair, in New York and Boston. But it's headline news in a British newspaper.
Fintan Costello: Do you know who never postpones?
Jon Bruford: Hang on there, Fintan. This shows a wider malaise, right? One of the problems with media organizations constantly chasing efficiencies, shall we say, and the ruination of the traditional news structure means that all of the news outlets are relying more and more on news wires.
Which is why this story is appearing in a British newspaper, because let's face it, Ariana Grande postponed, not cancelling, postponing three shows for a perfectly legitimate reason. Not really news to people living in the UK.
Fintan Costello: Not just news wires, but also PR teams.
Jon Bruford: Oh, well, we've seen that with the AI stuff that's been getting into the press. It's shameful.
Fintan Costello: As an investor in a PR company, if you'd like to appear in the news, it's entirely possible. I can introduce you to a great team who can make that happen and give you points.
Jon Bruford: We both know, though, that I should be kept far away from the news, don't we?
Fintan Costello: We do. We do.
Jon Bruford: Good. I'm glad we're both aware of that. That's good.
An investor, is that what you do these days? You invest in stuff, and you're like an advisor.
Fintan Costello: Yeah, I've helped them out a few bit. Look, the lads do all the hard work. I don't really do much.
Jon Bruford: And you only employ men?
Fintan Costello: No, they've got a lady on the team too, full diversity. But it's mostly blogs, just the way it worked out. And yeah, really good team.
They do brilliant work.
Jon Bruford: Great. Well, that's really good news. So Ariana Grande.
Fintan Costello: They're actually nominated for an award tomorrow at the IGB.
Jon Bruford: Well, that's exciting.
Fintan Costello: I think so.
Jon Bruford: What's the award? Best Fintan Costello Business, because there's a lot of competitors for that one.
Fintan Costello: No, I haven't got my own category yet.
Jon Bruford: Next year, Fintan.
The what's he done their category?
Fintan Costello: No, no, no, no, no, no.
Jon Bruford: Mind you, by this time next year, I'm not even going to be confident of winning the Best Fintan Costello Podcast Award.
Another headline for you. 10 movies from 2016 that would never be made today. Is that just because they realized they were shite?
I don't know. Oh God, why would you, what? Yeah, this is a load of old shit.
Arsenal, confident of making a transfer breakthrough.
Are these keto dieters heading towards a cholesterol? I haven't gone through the actual headlines of an actual newspaper. This is like a digest thing that I've found.
BBC Science Focus. This reactor works with no fuel. It could change the future of fission.
Fintan Costello: Do you know what else could change the future?
Jon Bruford: Using lead as a coolant.
Fintan Costello: For sake, I'll be doing ad-read.
Jon Bruford: Using lead as a coolant, Fintan, this is genius.
Who would have thought?
Well, I don't know. I haven't read the story yet. But finally though, hang on, I've got to reject all of the cookies.
GTA 6 is apparently shaping up to be a disaster for retailers.
Fintan Costello: Yeah, because it's digital.
Jon Bruford: And yet the pre-orders are.
Fintan Costello: Even the physical one is just an empty box with a code.
Jon Bruford: Pre-orders have hit a billion.
Fintan Costello: Yeah, that's surprising.
Jon Bruford: Yeah, but that's the kind of thing that could save lots of jobs and stuff. Now, what do I know? So anyway, Fintan, what were you trying to get in there and say, oh, so and so does what?
Fintan Costello: I was trying to link one of your headlines to one of our lovely sponsors.
Jon Bruford: Well, that's why I was giving you the headlines. I was dangling cheese.
Fintan Costello: You talked over me, you shut me down, you went on to the next one.
Jon Bruford: No, no, the problem was your timing.
Fintan Costello: Really? That's a story of my life. Too soon, too soon.
Jon Bruford: We've all been there, Fintan. I say we've all been there. What I mean is you've been there before.
Fintan Costello: Do you know who's great at timing?
Jon Bruford: No, Fintan, who?
Fintan Costello: The wonderful people at Optimove, who are able to get the right message in front of the right person at the right time. The inventors of positions marketing.
Jon Bruford: I like the sound of them.
Fintan Costello: The number one player solution, player engagement solution for iGaming and sports betting operators.
Jon Bruford: Wow.
Fintan Costello: Go to optimove.com, get the demo, tell them we sent you.
Jon Bruford: Yeah, because they give you like a month free.
Fintan Costello: They do.
Jon Bruford: It's great for us because it makes them think that their marketing money is well spent, which it is.
Fintan Costello: These seamless links.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. It's like a snake chain.
Fintan Costello: Just like that.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. Don't get your hair caught in those so much, do you? Well, I don't get my hair caught in much at all. Unless you rub it in my eyebrows. Yeah. It doesn't count if it slipped down there.
That's great news. I'm really glad that I could help lead you to that. Do you know what else I'm really glad I could lead you to, Fintan?
Fintan Costello: What's that, Jon?
Jon Bruford: I'm glad you asked. I wanted to share with you that today's episode is brought to you by Gaming Laboratories International.
Fintan Costello: No way.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. GLI is a world-class testing, inspections and certification company committed to delivering the highest quality land-based lottery I-gaming testing and assessment services around the world. Yes, it's true. GLI provides suppliers, operators and regulators with the expert guidance for navigating the future of gaming and ensuring gaming innovations meet regulatory standards with confidence in more than 710 jurisdictions. I know, right? If you would like to be led to more information, Fintan, visit gaminglabs.com.
Fintan Costello: gaminglabs.com.
Jon Bruford: Speaking of gaminglabs.com, do you know a place where you can often find gaminglabs?
Fintan Costello: Would it be an iGB event? Or a World Gaming event?
Jon Bruford: It would be a World Gaming event. I've seen them at ICE in Barcelona.
Fintan Costello: You're already talking about ICE?
Jon Bruford: Yeah. Well, iGBs, you know, happened.
Fintan Costello: It was great.
Jon Bruford: iGB's happened. And actually, do you know who I bumped into at the UNLV Conference on Risk and Gambling? I bumped into Christy Eichelmann, who's the, I think she's a Marketing Director at GLI.
Fintan Costello: Oh, cool. That's great.
Jon Bruford: Yeah, it's really nice, because if I see Christy at ICE or something like that, we get to say hi, but we don't usually get to chat, which she probably prefers. But at this time, I managed to stop her for a chat. Christy, how are you? All that kind of thing. It was good.
Fintan Costello: Like, who the fuck are you?
Jon Bruford: Pretty much. Yeah. Security.
Fintan Costello: How did I end up sponsoring you? What happened?
Jon Bruford: Yeah, it's all thanks for sponsoring the podcast. The what now? Security. And there's me. Taxi for Bruford. Good times. Yeah.
Fintan Costello: Talking of good times.
Jon Bruford: Good times.
Fintan Costello: We should introduce our guest.
Jon Bruford: worldgaming.com for anybody who's interested in fine net a bit of Clarion. They've also just renewed for a third year or fourth year. I think it's a fourth year.
Fintan Costello: They paid you twice, though, as long as they want.
Jon Bruford: Fintan, I haven't sorted that out yet. Oh, man. It's the last time I message you.
Fintan Costello: They paid us double. That's how good we are.
Jon Bruford: No, it wasn't that one. This is an invoice from earlier in the year that they accidentally paid twice.
Fintan Costello: Oh, OK. Fair enough.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. It wasn't the sponsorship one.
Fintan Costello: Oh, OK. OK.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. Unfortunately. That would have been... Hey! But Fintan, do you know what else we're doing today?
Fintan Costello: We're talking to our lovely guest.
Jon Bruford: Yes, we are. Would you like to introduce him? I'm going to have a drink. Sponsorships are available. We've got Glass Sponsorship, Forehead Sponsorship and Fintan's almost biannual haircut sponsorship.
Fintan Costello: So we have the lovely MASH returning guest, friend of the podcast.
Jon Bruford: What the fuck just happened?
Fintan Costello: You said introduce the guest.
Jon Bruford: Yeah, but it's just that huge pause.
Fintan Costello: I had to, I couldn't remember which university he was working for, so I had to quickly open it up.
Jon Bruford: It's easy, it's easiest to remember because it sounds made up.
Fintan Costello: It does sound made up. It does sound like one of those dodgy online universities where…
Jon Bruford: I've got a degree from there.
Fintan Costello: I have a PhD. Dr. Costello, it's you. I bought my tokens.
Jon Bruford: I bought that cereal box. Mine had a Curacao gaming license in it. No, I'm just kidding. Well, that's the old joke. Now, it's an Anjuan gaming license.
Fintan Costello: Yeah, or what's Anjuan and Google?
Jon Bruford: Did you see that Curacao published their crypto framework?
Fintan Costello: I did. I haven't read it.
Jon Bruford: But I can't believe nobody's shouting about that from the rooftop. That's a big fucking deal.
Fintan Costello: I agree. But talking of big deals.
Jon Bruford: Yeah. What about?
Fintan Costello: We got a match from the American University of Washington, I want to say. Is that right, Matt?
Matt Bakowicz: No.
Fintan Costello: I it. I fucked it. Edit, edit, edit.
Matt Bakowicz: So I'd like to point out a few things in the last minute and a half of Fintan Talking. First, I am wearing the logo of my university. So that could have been his cue.
Fintan Costello: I can't see. I'm blind. I'm not wearing my glasses. I'm too vain.
Matt Bakowicz: But I thought the pause was coming from the fact that nobody ever knows how to say my last name, which is Bakowicz. So I figured he's pausing going, how do I say this? Because that's what everybody usually does.
Fintan Costello: I am the worst. And Jon will back this up.
Matt Bakowicz: So you're good there.
Fintan Costello: My lack of education really shines through when it comes to pronouncing difficult words. Because…
Jon Bruford: It's not your lack of education. I'm the one with no education. You're educated out the butt.
Fintan Costello: Yeah, but like I cheated in every exam, every school. Like, I'm not the one. But you're extremely well-read, Jon. Extremely well-read.
Jon Bruford: I can read.
Matt Bakowicz: We call that street smarts in America.
Jon Bruford: Street smarts. That's not going too far. The mean street's a little low.
Matt Bakowicz: So it is American University. You are correct. It's American University. It is in Washington, DC. But I will give you a pass because for the first three months in the fall when I was working here, my father referred to it as the University Americas. And I told him, Dad, I'm not in a yacht race down in Bermuda competing for a cup.
So it is a fair pass, but I will-
Fintan Costello: It's a fail.
Matt Bakowicz: But you know what? It's funny on a small segue. It actually goes to the point of our last month and a half here at the university.
Our president is leading to take on the chairmanship between two educational institutions. And our new president will be our business school's dean, who will be taking over as interim president for the next year. And his big vision is rebranding and launching and telling the story of American University. And that is our marketing team's task. So your, I don't know about this image is actually exactly what we're trying to do, is tell the DC story because we've gone up in rankings for our MBA program, our business schools, our university. We're doing a great job.
Nobody knows who we are and where we're at. So we've spent the last year doing well, and now we're looking to tell the story. So I'm very excited about that.
That'll be aside from the four million other jobs and tasks that I'll be doing and the 90,000 games I'll be watching, trying to figure out how to tell the story of a small university in Northwest Washington DC.
Fintan: Brilliant. That's really nice.
Jon: The little university that could. But yeah, so it's a returning guest, which is always good. But I don't even know what that is. But we were due to record this a couple of weeks ago, but we couldn't due to executive constraints, which is something you should probably invest in Fintan because I think it's apparently these are things that all executives are into.
Fintan: Constraints? Like, yeah, it's like a bondage joke or something.
Jon: That's exactly what this is. Exactly what this is. A bit of Fintan Costello, PhD at American University, BDSM. That's how your next business card looks.
Fintan: I'm not into paying. I'm a cuddler. I'm not into paying. Big spoon.
Jon: Who puts the big spoons and the little spoons in the same drawer? Nobody does, Fintan. I'm all for segregating spoons, frankly. I've never understood that terminology.
Jon: But Matt, we were due to talk, I think, just before Royal Ascot, I think.
Matt: Yes.
Jon: Postponing it for executive constraints.
Matt: Executive constraints.
Jon: Or executive restraints. That works better. Yeah. I'd invest in those. Now, what were we going to talk about regarding Ascot? Were you looking at-
Because I know you're like, if it's sports, you're there.
Fintan: Sorry to interrupt. I've got a question.
Jon: Go on. Ask me.
Matt: I will do a teacher thing. Fintan, yes.
Fintan: I've always pronounced it Ascot. You're pronouncing it Ascot. Is this like one of those weird English things where like the words not pronounced as it's written?
Jon: No, I think Ascot can go either way.
Fintan: But it is Ascot, isn't it? That is the right way to pronounce it.
Jon: I think if I was seeing somebody with the neck wear, I would call it an Ascot.
Have I just blown your mind? There's a neck wear called Ascot. What's an Ascot? It's a thing.
Matt: Anyway, to answer your question, the two things I wanted to mention were just a couple of very fun betting things that we saw at the race. But I also wanted to talk about the project we did for the Royal Ascot and the Kentucky Derby in my class this year, using AI and predictive models to try to see if the computer could make the proper selections for the horse race. Spoiler alert, we weren't right. But we were not that long.
Fintan: If you were, you wouldn't be here.
Matt: Yeah. Well, actually, that's funny. To tell the whole story, to go back, it was March 21st and I'm at Laurel Park, Maryland Jockey Club in Maryland, and we're putting this little thing together.
We did predictions for the first four races. Race one comes up and the nine horse was an eight to one, I would say long shot, but definitely not the favorite, and ends up winning. We had the winner, we had the trifecta, the exacta and the superfecta, and we were up $902 after the first race.
I'm with a bunch of students cranking stuff out on laptops, they just won $902. There's three reactions. Reaction one, where's the nearest bar?
Reaction two, can I quit my job? Reaction three, just like every gambler, let's go again. So a couple of rules that did establish this, it was fictitious money.
We were not allowed to actually do this. And the reason behind that is Maryland was very kind enough to let us use some of their software as we were going through a pair of mutual stuff. And when you start using gambling equipment and stuff, you signed 45 million things saying, we're not gonna do anything nefarious or put us in jail.
So of course, you know, the first thing happens, and when you're with a bunch of kids who have not followed the industry as closely as I have over the years, you immediately think, oh my God, I have solved, I have cracked the system. Everybody in gambling says, I've got a system. Roulette's the best one I love. I've got a roulette system, Matt. I'm gonna be a billionaire. I'm like, okay, you just, that's fine. Donate to my political campaign down the line. We're good there. So that was just kind of a very comical moment.
We did okay, the fourth race came, and of course, every one of our predictions were gone. But what it really was fun to do was take years of data. For the Derby, for example, for these races, you're looking at three, four years for the Derby, you're looking at over 110, 120 years, and consolidate these databases into what we thought were strong statistical models.
I know none of my students are going to have careers as horse race handicappers. Maybe I'll train the next one, it's probably not gonna happen. But what I did get to teach them was, how do you consolidate 100 years’ worth of data points into a spreadsheet to put a model together?
And they can sit in job interviews, and they can sit in conversations and talk with their employers of, I can do this with other types of data. So that was really fun. We did that, we fine-tuned the model, we put all this, we put this three-week plan together of, here's our horses, here's our predictive stuff we launched it on Tuesday before the Derby, we're super excited about it, and two of the horses that we picked scratched, and the whole thing got thrown out.
So it's Friday morning, and I might just throw this thing in the garbage. The horse I picked, Command Mint, actually ended up finishing second in the Belmont, so I did have a pretty decent horse. Nobody had Golden Tempo, the winner, which was a long shot in the first or third leg.
So it went to show us that, let's just say this, we got to go back to the drawing board. So where was the drawing board? That led us into Royal Ascot week, and we did pretty good on the favorites.
We didn't have any of the long shots coming through. We did pretty good on the favorites. And statistical-wise, our model actually was profitable and successfully picking, but only picked winners at very long odds, or very short odds, so it wasn't really financially wealthy yet, but it'll give us a chance to go back and do something again.
So in case you're curious, this is what we do at our university classrooms, is look at statistical modeling around a sports betting and sports gambling world to understand and learn that, and then hopefully apply that in future careers down the line.
Fintan: I love it.
Matt: So it was fun.
Fintan: So just because obviously there's two parts to this, right? There's the modeling and then there's the allocating the bets to the model.
Matt: That is where we had success. So what we did was we actually used three forms of, with one of the advancements we're doing here at the university is really integrating AI into as many things as we can. So we fed into the model.
Here's a fictitious bankroll. We used $1000 for the Derby for races 8 through 12. And we allocated that bankroll.
And I'll send you guys the write up then if you want to post on the site and stuff, they can take a look at that and what that looks like. But essentially it was allocating the bankroll. We did two models, which this is actually, I like to say this, I don't have that many bright ideas, but this was one that I was pretty proud of.
We had two models. One was, hey, what's the best way to bet this money? Throw it out there.
We want to bet this money. Here's $1,000. Here's our races we're betting.
Go ahead and throw that throw. Pretty classic. The second one that I was a little bit more proud of was, don't necessarily put money on the likely outcome or the highest probability.
Place wagers on what might be the highest value or not a long shot, but a mid-level one that would be the most rewarding, if you will. That actually proved profitable for both the Kentucky Derby, the Times, we were at Laurel Park and Ascot Week. It was not so much trying to pick a winner, but it was allocating money into what would be a respectable long shot that could potentially turn profitable, or your second, third or fourth horses that if the favorite doesn't run well, here's who we're looking at for that success.
That was the second allocation. We did quite well on that one.
Fintan: That's cool. I think that from a professional gambling perspective, that bet allocation, Kelly Criterion, that kind of stuff is actually a big part of the secret sauce. It's not just about predicting. It's because you're not going to get 100 percent right.
Matt: It is. That was the point we were trying. There was two points we were trying to address.
The first was teaching students modeling around. You tell them to go model. One thing finance students like to do is earnings reports and when a company is going to release their earnings.
Great. That's not that exciting. But go get them to predict the champions of the 64, 68 field, the NCAA men's basketball tournament, the playoffs of hockey, horse racing.
You get them excited about that. So part of it is about connecting the material to a topic that they're going to enjoy. But the second half of that is to actually show the gaming industry, people that want to do this professionally and that are very knee-deep into it, that it's not just them looking at a piece of paper or looking at a form and saying this, this and this.
It's high-end statistical models and this is across the board in what we see advantage players on slot machines, when we see poker players who are playing eight to 10 hours on simulators to understand the odds of each one of the hands that are coming through a horse racing, sports betting models that I read two weeks ago in one of these articles that back in apparently 2005, there was this wind current coming up the coast of the United States from the Atlantic, and all outdoor stadiums had more wind than they traditionally do. So people were betting the under religiously because of the wind streams that were coming in stadiums like Virginia Tech, Virginia, your Penn States, your Rutgers, all the way down into Duke and everybody that had an open air stadium. And they ran an algorithm and an analysis of that.
So this world is not just taking a box and a square and saying, I like this, this and this or watching something on TV and go, he looks good, let's place money on that. We saw that, we'll talk about that in a little bit, but we saw that with the Futures of the World Cup, where people are just like, oh, I like Team USA, let's place that money. It's just so much more of a sophisticated world.
And what I saw at the next conference in New York, here in the States is now you have not only betting companies using AI and using advanced algorithms to put their odds out, but going up against AI tools and software to help with predictions. So it is literally not a man versus machine, but two computers do can get out over what's going to happen. And at the end of the day, my hope is because of the amount of money that's involved in this industry, because of how worldwide spread, it's just about knowledge in a classroom of explaining to people what goes on, how your industry might be connected to that, how advertising dollars are attached to this, and what's this whole big conglomerate machine that is in the billions now, both in revenue, both in tax implications and in worldwide structure.
A lot of boring words there, but for somebody that's going to be entering the industry that has a sports connection, you'll be dealing with this for the next 10 years. That's why I think my class filled up in the spring. I'm getting requests of, are you running this in 2027?
I'm already signed up now. So I'm happy with it.
Fintan: That's really cool. No, but look, it's so important because you got the material, but then like, okay, let's bring this to life. And then the beauty of sports is there's always a sport or there's something to analyze and it's such a data rich environment.
And being able to just tackle that is crucial. It's brilliant stuff.
Matt: Yeah, it's a data rich environment. And I say this a lot, sports are one of the few things that just cut through everything. Sports are, it doesn't have your race, your religion, your political affiliation, your background, right?
It throws all that out. And it's just everybody comes together around one kind of entity. We have our School of Public Affairs over here that does Analyzation and Political Data, and kids get in fights and arguments over like numbers from an election in like 1971.
And I'm just sitting here like, guys, that's not happening again. That's 40, 50 years ago. Don't worry about that. Like it's okay.
Jon: But who would your money be on if it did devolve into a fist fight?
Matt: All the SPA students that also are either student athletes or going to be lawyers, they're quite scrappy. So they're usually pretty good on that side. So anyways, I say all this to say that we're trying to teach with a medium that draws attention in a world that there's so many avenues out there that are trying to gravitate towards your attention.
So if I can teach you something in a 10-minute span around a concept that you like, I think I'm doing my job.
Jon: Yeah, you probably are.
Matt: Or we'll find out next year if I don't get my contract renewal. Then I'll come back on the show in March in 2027 and say, hey, guys, you got any work over here?
Jon: No, I think by then you'll have tenure.
Matt: Year five. I'm on year two right now, so I got three to go, is the attack plan on that. But I will say we went from, when I talked to you guys last in February, we were kind of in this limbo world of where do we stand now.
The program has now grown to 15. We have a 15-credit coursework, so for educational structure, it's five classes. I have 90 students currently enrolled all together in those classes with cohorts of 38 to 43 students that are fully invested in that.
We've done eight different mega event trips. We're coming to London in 2027. We, let's see, volunteered at the UFC.
Half my students volunteered at the UFC Fights in the White House Lawn, which I know people are paying attention to. That was, let me tell you something else, guys. That was a scene.
It was very entertaining and a lot of cool stuff. But we were all helping with the meet and greets of a lot of the fighters, which was a lot of fun on that and worked in that. And we're ready to go.
And we have a lot of projects in the fall. We're actually, funny enough, launching a podcast structure. We call it Kogod Live that is updating our students on the news outlets.
We have analysis now on our men's basketball team. And soccer team now, which we're very excited about our women's soccer team. So it's been a fun journey.
And if I can still integrate some of my sports betting and gaming world into a much bigger platform, I think we're doing okay.
Fintan: That's brilliant. I love it. That's great. Because what's great about it as well is it will be your courses, what they'll remember. Like when they look back on their university time, it'll be this is what they'll remember.
Matt: You know, it's funny. I jokingly say when I'm in the classroom, I just tell stories and I explain to stuff about like, you know, I shouldn't be saying this, but having a back room, a 21-year-old kid with $68,000 and a backpack, circumventing kiosks at a casino. And this kid going, this kid says to me, I don't have a car to go home. And he's holding $68,000 in cash. I told my students, I said, I drive a Subaru Forester. I will give you my car. You have enough money in the bag.
So, you know, things like that. They tell me that they like the other, they love hearing the stories.
They love hearing the things that, and the real-world experience. And I think, you know, I think the gaming industry over the years, because it evolved so much, you know, you have our casino industry here in the States. You have a much bigger gaming industry internationally.
But you have these like generational culture changes that happen over time. You have what I call like the old timer guys that would be playing poker in Vegas, that knew that we had the mobster connections to the guys that were part of the corporations. Now these AI algorithmic guys that are betting on Polymarket and running these huge algorithms with thousands upon thousands of dollars to get a two to three percent advantage.
Each generation I think passes on the stories and the excitement and the fun of like what was that time. And each increase in generation looks back and goes, wait, you guys did things like that? That was a thing?
So it makes for just a very fun narrative that spans over time. And I think that younger kids, younger individuals like to hear from what's happened in the past. Whereas for me, mob control of Las Vegas is one of the biggest things that I just, I love reading about, love understanding, you know, Hollywood has highlighted so many of those movies, but I look at that and I think that's fun.
My kids look at my world and they say like, that was really fun and their kids are going to look back on this AI generation and say, okay, what in the world were you guys doing in the gaming industry and how much has it evolved?
Fintan: I agree, I agree, that's great.
Matt: Anyways, that was what I want to talk about the Royal Ascot, which was a very long circle way back to coming back to. The coolest thing we loved was we had waging money on 10 Bob Tony. We didn't have the horse winning the Queen Anne steak on Tuesday.
Went off at a 51 long shot, one by a half a length and actually is in now the Breeders Cup coming back to the States. It's a fun storyline. You have a 51 long shot that one will be in the mile, October 30th, 31st at Keeneland.
You want a big dichotomy. Go from Royal Ascot Racecourse to Keeneland, Kentucky. Spoiler alert, they're not the same thing.
They're not the same platform. Both are great and unique with their own cultural spin on it. That's really fun.
That's going to be a fun horse to watch. My pick over everything was Bo Echo in the St. James Palace Stake. One by, we're on a camera, so let's just say a head bob, we'll call it.
Half an inch head bob on that one. But that horse, for those that are in the European world, because I don't think the horse is coming over to the United States, dug down deep and had a great run in the last, I would probably call it, we use furlongs over here, let's call it like meters. The last 200 meters and a half, just watching that horse run with, I've got enough in the tank to kind of win, was a fun, you know, fun story.
But one to pay attention to and to watch for in the coming months, will run again, is going to go off as a favorite, but worth it in a lot of your Xacta and trifecta wagering, your superfectas, or anything of your exotics, as there's a couple other ones that some of the Americans don't play over here. So that was kind of fun. And then the rest of the horses were really just like predictions of horses that we thought we were going to do well and did well.
And Ryan Moore won seven races and has had another excellent and successful career. Ryan Moore, whose father was a trainer, his two brothers are also jockeys. His sister was an amateur jockey champion.
Like what do you do for dinner? Like put all the kids outside and say like, okay, first one to the table gets like the big piece of meat or the big piece of chicken or something. So those are just some really fun and exciting stories.
We had 10.65 million pounds in prize money this year at the Ascot. So again, richest meat in the British structure, which was fantastic. And yeah, it was a very fun event that had a couple of long shot upsets with a lot of things that we thought were gonna be successful and about eight horses that, and I'll put up the list and I'll send you guys the list that you can put on the site, but a lot of horses that we'll get to see again in October to have a cool connection.
And I want to mention the Royal Ascot because see here in America, we don't think that things happen anywhere else really outside of the United States. And I'll even back up here in America, we don't know that things happened like five miles down the road in other towns. We, you know, we don't.
So, when the Breeders Cup happens, a lot of the American handicappers and the, you know, the, I would call me novice players, the casual fans will sit there and go like, wait, that horse came from like Britain, that horse came from Ireland, that horse came from Japan, Australia. Like, but we're in Kentucky. Like, how did the horse get here?
So, so I like to mention that there are fun storylines outside of the States that get to come over here. When I was in college, every year for the Breeders Cup, I would have all the country's flags that were participating all in my dorm room. And every time we had an American horse, when my roommates that we would be, we'd have the American flag waving, and then we switched to the Irish flag, the Japan flag, the Australian flag.
So we had all the flags set up and, you know, people would look at us like, you're really weird. What are you going to do with this? You're not going to make it a career.
Hey, jokes on them. 10 years later, this is what I'm doing now. So, which is all to say that it was a very, a fun meet, a financially successful meet, two cool long shots, and two horses with great stories that I think are going to come into the United States and make some noise on that one.
Will those be horses that are part of my predictive model? Yeah, I think so. And was pretty excited about that.
So yeah, that was my recap from an American perspective who has a strong appreciation for international culture.
Jon: So golf is kind of your big...No, you go.
Fintan: I've got a prediction question.
Matt: Yes
Fintan: So, Jon has been predicting for a while now that the American World Cup is going to be a really big deal.
Matt: Jon, I think he went out of constraints there on that one. I didn't get any of that.
Jon: No, it's just a coincidence that he was talking over me. And then his microphone just... because I can't commute any of you from here.
Fintan: Sorry. Jon's been predicting that the...
Jon: He's done it again. The funny thing is, Matt, that the recording is actually going to be perfect, I think.
Matt: Okay.
Jon: So we're going to be laughing at nothing and people are going to be here, Fintan, just speaking really clearly.
Fintan: Am I not coming through?
Matt: Oh, try it again.
Fintan: Am I back? Hello? Knock, knock. No?
Jon: You're breaking up. It's like a bad, you know, late 1970s comedy star on British television.
Fintan: Oh, shit. Okay.
Jon: It's very, very peculiar.
Matt: Jon, while Fintan works on his executive constraints, if you wanted to ask your question, then we can come back to that.
Jon: No. Well, I was going to take you on to the Golf, but I'm curious.
Matt: I am curious on Fintan's modeling question, then we'll chat with my first love and passion, which I did get around in this morning. Two over par, one birdie, two bogeys and one incident. We'll just go from there.
There's a lot of geese on one of the holes this morning. We have a goose problem over here in the States with our golf courses. They love to just live there.
Jon: Well, the grass is nice.
Matt: This is true.
Jon: If I were something as big as a goose and I was looking for somewhere to have a nice little lie down, I would totally go for the greens.
Matt: That's exactly what happens. We have an island hole, hole number 12. I played the back nine this morning at our course.
There's a giant pond around it and the entire course is covered in geese. They're all sitting there and I'm like, I've got to make my putt, but I don't want these things to start flying everywhere and attacking me. I walk on the hole very gingerly and a couple of them got up and were like, the vibe I got from the geese this morning were, we're going to let you putt, but understand this is our territory.
We're allowing you here. I had a moment with a couple of the geese that were like, we're going to let you stay, but get out quickly.
Jon: In Florida, do they have issues with flamingos and alligators?
Matt: The gators, yes, actually. This is actually, speaking of your newswire story, we actually have an alligator attack problem. We had a huge, it was on national news over here in the States.
We had an alligator attack in Florida. That's the third one this week. We actually have a lot of alligator issues right now with beaches and with golf courses.
I have no idea why. It's not very common. The short answer, yes, and that's actually making American headlines right now.
Jon: Crazy. Fintan.
Fintan: Am I back?
Matt: You are back.
Jon: You do seem to be clearer now. Give it a go. Go on.
Fintan: Who knows? Probably my AI agents using up the realm or something. Predictions. I've got a prediction question.
Matt: Shoot.
Jon has been predicting that the World Cup is going to be a really big gambling event in America or a really big event in America. This is like where soccer makes its mark in America. As boots on the ground, how is he doing so far?
Matt: Very, very interesting question. Let's chat. World Cup. We’ll end with golf.
Not that this is in my show and I'm hijacking your theme, but that's a perfect segue into this. You have to first start to answer that question with this concept of dynamic pricing that FIFA and the United States are starting. When I use that, that sounds really technical.
We're going to break it down to the streets, scalpers and tickets and resale. Secondary market was huge for the World Cup this year. Or I should say, the intent and the idea of the secondary market.
So the World Cup FIFA pricing came in and said we're going to price tickets a little bit higher than we normally would to try to eliminate the resale market. I teach this concept in class, and it's when you want somebody to buy something, you want 85% of your group to buy something. Because if 100% are buying that, you're not actually pricing at the level that's going to maximize revenue.
85% purchased that. Mathematically, from an economic standpoint, that will actually make more money in the long term because of the higher cost. So, what you're seeing is the results of the World Cup pricing strategy working financially.
So, the first part is, is the World Cup making money? Yes. Is it working financially?
Absolutely. Are other businesses making money and being profitable on this? Yes.
So, that's the short answer. But this is kind of like an onion. You got to unpack the layers.
So, from the business perspective, is every host city making money and making the most amount of money? The answer is no. The answer is no because of tourism infrastructure that was either established or not established.
I'll use two simple examples. LA. Everybody goes to LA, whether you're a sports person, a Hollywood person or just I want to see it.
LA has the ability, the means and has hosted large scale events and has a tourism infrastructure that's been established for years and decades. People know how to navigate around LA. It's already there.
They have the hotel infrastructure. They have the movie scene. You get the idea.
Seattle does not. Seattle's original prediction was around $865 million of profitability from the World Cup by being a host site hosting events. It actually lowered that estimate now from an economic standpoint to around $600 million, about a $200 million shortfall.
So yes, they are being profitable, but not as profitable as was originally expected. LA, New York, Miami are the three cities that are thriving right now in the World Cup because they already have a tourism infrastructure established. Seattle and Boston, for example, while making money, while still hosting, we see stadiums that are about 75 to 80 percent capacity and not as much profit because they didn't have the tourism infrastructure that was available.
It comes down to this one conclusion. Just being a host site didn't guarantee you this big mega financial boom. What you needed were a couple of layers that were underneath that.
That's what I've been talking about in the last two weeks outside of the matchups and the betting stuff from my business perspective, putting my management faculty hat on was it's not evenly distributed. Is it going to be big here in America or I should say, is it big? Absolutely.
Are we having great watch parties? Fantastic. But peeling it back, you're going to have winners on the business side, you're going to have losers on the business side, and you're going to have people rethinking like, is it worth me hosting a mega event?
Is it worth me being this host site? Is it worth me bringing this in? Is it worth me doing this particular capacity?
Is my city available with the infrastructure to be successful? What's that going to have an implication on? The Women's World Cup next year, future host sites of the Olympics if the United States or other countries are going to look at this model and say, okay, if we don't have the tourism infrastructure, it's not going to work for us financially on profitability.
So to scale it all back, yes, there's good stuff and bad, but it's unequal. And then from a fan perspective, with this dynamic pricing structure that's been established, you're sacrificing fan loyalty for profitability. And that has been a very polarizing issue here in the United States.
Being a very, we are a, and I know we talked about this very specifically in the last podcast that we did, we're a very capitalistic country and we're profitability driven. It's, you know, how America works for the right or wrong. You have people that will sit there and go, look, if people are willing to spend more money on this, they're willing to spend more money on this, it is what it is.
You have others that are saying, but you're pricing out the casual, or not the casual fan, the die-hard fan that can't afford it. You have people that are on both sides of the aisle on this one. Some are saying it's not fair.
Others are saying, hey, listen, if somebody is willing to pay, what it's leading to is your bigger matchups, your bigger teams, your bigger clubs, will have the full stadiums. Your lighter clubs are having stadiums fill between 75 and 80 percent of capacity and having a little bit of a ticket issue. And then it's getting at this bigger question, are you losing fan loyalty?
And to sum all that up though, what has been saving the United States in that debate is Team USA's success. The final matchup, the rest of all the players, I'm throwing that whole entire thing out. But winning the first two matchups, 4-1, 2-1, doing exactly what we're supposed to do.
We have, according to my model, we have an 84 point, let me make sure I get this correct here, 82.3% of winning and getting into the round of 16, 45.3% of getting into the corner finals, 17.1% of getting into the 70s. So one thing about American sports is, the more you win, the more excitement you get, everybody forgets about all this business nonsense and ticketing loyalty and comes back to, hey, we're winning, we're good, we don't care. So that was a great question that I took way too long to answer and threw a lot of stuff out at you.
Fintan: No, it's a really, I loved your, I think my question was actually really basic. You've answered a much better question. Because you're right, if you think of Olympics and you think of other World Cups and stuff, the London Olympics was fantastic.
But it's in a city with full tourism infrastructure where people are excited to go visit London. Or if you look at the last World Cup, it's a lot of stadiums built for this event in places where you probably wouldn't go anyway. So you're literally just going for a, you go for the game and you leave immediately.
So you're not getting those kind of benefits. So it's actually, because there is a huge issue with these major sporting, like a World Cup or an Olympics, where they're just massive white elephants. Huge costs, zero, basically, the forecast is always a lie.
The economic benefit is always a lie, and the costs are massively understated. But pairing it with places where people, so basically the bigger, more tourist driven places are just gonna get bigger.
Matt: Exactly.
Fintan: You can kind of see Las Vegas just trying to build that into their model 24-7 of just like, we've got so much stuff on, you've got to visit Vegas.
Matt: Well, people had a big debate about Vegas bringing an NHL team. They said, look, Vegas is a transient community. It has people coming in and out.
Are they going to be receptive to an NHL team? And the Golden Knights, of course, have had nothing but success with not only winning, being back in the Stanley Cup, we saw that with Las Vegas Aces coming in. We now saw this with the Las Vegas Raiders.
And then soon to be the, we don't know the team name yet, but we're thinking athletics, we'll see. But why is it working? Because yes, it is a tourism destination, but it has everything around there to be successful and to support the community.
So, you know, it's a new model we're now looking at. One that we actually, we, funny enough, teach, it'll be a class in 2027, we call it Mega Events. We're teaching a World Cup class right now.
Professor Matt Winkler teaches that. And then we're gonna move that and merge that into in the spring of understanding the business behind Mega Events.
Fintan: Got it. So then from a sports perspective then, so they're, you know, the Americans, you know, sports fans are getting behind the World Cup? Are, you know, because obviously it helps that the team's winning, but it is actually, you know, when I think of soccer in America, I always think of that Homer Simpson joke of, I nearly saw a goal.
Matt: There's a great, there's a great Simpsons episode where it's Portugal and Spain are playing in the some, I, they basically try to combine Monday night football's theme over here with soccer and they watch the commercial and they're like, why have you never taken us to a soccer match dad? He's like, I don't know. And the segment actually goes to the American commentator going halfback passes to center, center to halfback, halfback to center, holding, holding.
And they go to the Portugal commentator or the Spanish commentator. He's like, the center, holding, holding, it's hot. So you're not wrong.
You're, that, you're, you're an out. Okay. So to break down America-
Fintan: Is it resonating with Americans?
Matt: Yes. And there's a few reasons why. There's four main reasons.
And I will do this in no particular order. Number one, we have absolutely nothing to gamble on right now. We have baseball.
Americans tend not to. Baseball is one of the sports that we bet the least amount on in terms of wagering. And one of the reasons why is there's just game after game.
It's not- it's hard even with money on the game to be emotionally invested in a baseball game. It just operates differently.
It operates- it's a bit slower. It's-
there's so many of them. There's a lot of moving parts. Whereas football is once a week, it's the same team, things tend to be very repetitive.
There's only 18 weeks of it. Now, we need something to gamble on. And we need something to gamble on because since 2018, and really the explosion of sports betting over here, we have millions upon millions of people wagering.
So that's been one thing why there's been a tension on it. It's one game, it's one matchup, it's- it's-
that's the whole part. So Americans are embracing it for reason number one, there is an opportunity to bet on something other than baseball at this time here. We have no other real sports going on right now.
So that's- that's kind of your first component. Your second component where the embrace has been coming in is we in the last really eight years of the country from our political structure have been extremely polarized.
We've been extremely polarized and we've been both positive and negative on the international scene with multiple countries. And I don't need to get into the world of the details of the news. Everybody knows what I'm talking about.
America has been very polarized internally, politically and on the international scale. This has been a chance for people that are really, and I call it, when I say well-educated, I don't mean like going to a lot of school, but know how to put a political question or a quorum aside to watch a game with someone that has a different opinion. And in this case, they're rooting for a different country.
You have a lot of camaraderie and you have a lot of mixed cities here in the United States with people that come from all different types of countries. It's very similar to, and I can't believe I'm comparing this, but the United States did this with China with Ping Pong. And we went over to China during the Nixon administration.
It all came back to that 1971-1972 election I was talking about before. I was going somewhere with us. But we went over there to just have this conversation of culture and have a dialogue between the United States and another country, and in this case, China.
So you're seeing people going to watch parties, going and watching other countries and talking with other colleagues because you work with people from these other countries, you have something that's not as polarizing, not a news thing, not an economic thing, not a political thing. It's watching the ball go in a net. It's a really easy thing to sit there and have a pint with a guy, watching a ball go in a net and talk about what's on the field, then debate over economic and trade war policy.
So and I say this because am I a little biased from being in DC? Sure. But I'm also from New England.
I'm seeing it in Boston. I was in New York for one of the matches, saw it in New York, seeing it in Miami, seeing it in California, in Texas, in Seattle, all cities that have a diverse economic population and national population. So that's been a very big run into what we've seen on the American side.
So those are kind of the two reasons why it's taking off and why it's kind of going. Your third is there's been a heavy investment in youth movement from an advertisement perspective, meaning watch World Cup, get your kids involved in World Cup. There's summer camps around World Cup.
There's club teams there. There's been a heavy investment financially in the United States of getting youth involved in this sport, and they're centering it around this whole entire marketing strategy. So what does that mean?
A kid is currently at soccer camp right now or on a premier team while watching the World Cup while being supported financially by these clubs and these partnerships and private equity as an investment in growing the game from a youth perspective and a youth sport perspective. So that's kind of been why it's been sort of driven on this side. And finally, from a media attention-wise here, we can watch every single game on Peacock.
We can watch every single game at a watch party. We can watch. There are so many viewing platforms and availabilities to see what's going on that it's almost hard not to miss that.
So you've got your media attention, a push for youth sports, a sporting structure that is cutting away from geopolitical issues and culture and something to bet on for drivers that are pushing this from into the United States. Are they? Prediction-wise, They predicted the ratings a little too high?
Yeah. Did they predict too much money was going to be made? But still have 10%, 20% lower, in my opinion, still successful.
Jon: I think I've just been pondering, like sometimes when a nation hosts an event, the event lives on beyond the host's participation. Now you've got three countries jointly hosting, which is, you know, Mexico is football mad. Canada is, I'm sorry, what's that round thing?
And the USA is kind of getting there. You know, your league seems to be sustaining itself. But I think, and I couldn't have made this call before the tournament.
But I think that even if the US get knocked out, the tournament will still have legs domestically. Because the superstars have delivered. And are continuing to deliver.
Harry Kane has had a very decent World Cup so far. Erling Haaland has shown up. Messi is ripping up the fucking records.
And Barpe is sparkling. But the whole France team is sparkling. You know, the big, big names have turned up.
There are some big score lines in unexpected places. And, as of the early hours of this morning, two of the traditional big names have gone out, which kind of, I've been saying for ages that if it ain't France that wins it, it will be some absolute dark horse. But that gate just got thrown wide open last night with the exit of the Netherlands, who I know haven't been any great shakes lately, but historically they have a stunning pedigree to really tally the group of players.
But Germany going out.
Fintan: On penalties as well, which is like the German.
Matt: Listen, don't get me, do not get me started on, okay, I will, look, I'm going to rant for a second, then we're going to go on a futures market because Fintan made that penalties comment. Confer Cup, I watched every single match, I kid you not, I was writing the sports book, we had a 600 foot, big TV in front of me, I watched it every match. And it was just a historically significant amount of penalty, like rounds ended in penalties, or teams got knocked out in penalties.
I think there was like 12 or 13 matches where it went to penalty kicks. But I was sitting there as very typical, stereotypical American going, you play 100 and something minutes running on here and end it with penalty kicks. Like, it's one of the few things that I have a hard time getting behind in the sport.
And I 100% blame American culture and my American upbringing in this. Going, you spend all this time running around and putting all this energy in and you're going to end it with like kicking at a goal. Hockey had one of the very similar problems here in the United States with ties.
We don't like ties here. So they went to a shootout. Okay, that was fine.
It was exciting on that stuff. But what they modified their overtime for; it's three on three hockey. So, a lot of the matchups end up actually finishing in three on three.
And I've said, why can't they adopt that same thing in the football, where go eight on eight, open up the space, go four on four for 10 minutes as an overtime segment for a little bit more excitement than going to the penalty kicks. I don't know if I, I'm hoping someone convinces me why that's a proper way to end a match. I don't know if I'm...
Fintan: I love the penalty shootouts.
Jon: Last night, did you see the Germany-Paraguay shootout?
Matt: I know, don't get me wrong, I love the excitement of it.
Jon: It was fantastic.
Matt: I just feel so bad that that's the way the match ends after doing all that on the pitch. And that's how the match ends. And it's like, why don't we just start with this?
Jon: Which it's really interesting psychologically watching a penalty shootout.
Matt: Oh, no doubt. My best friend, Amanda Dennis, she's Lieutenant Dennis in our Coast Guard now, played four years at Penn State, Women's National Soccer League, was the goalkeeper. And when there'd be penalty shots, I'd talk to her about it all the time.
What does that go through? What is that like? One of the most exciting things to watch and then to speak to the goal and get the perspective on it at the Collegiate Ranks was something. So it was, oh, you're exactly right.
Jon: Well, it's interesting. Paraguay used to have a goalkeeper called, I think it was Jose Luis Chilovet, who was an expert dead ball taker, an amazing free kick taker, goalkeeper, one of the highest scoring goalkeepers that's ever played the game. I think he's second highest scoring goalkeeper.
But unfortunately, they didn't have him last night. Well, I mean, it would have been a shorter penalty shoot if they'd had him. But it was, I think Germany missed three penalties out of six.
I say missed, saved or missed. It was really fascinating because some big names fluffed their penalties. These are highly experienced players.
These are big game players. These aren't 17-year-olds have come into the side. These are, yeah, I mean, Kai Havertz, who took the first German penalty, which was unsuccessful.
He scored the winning goal in the Champions League final for Chelsea. Now, I mean, he's a big game dude. And it's like it emphasizes what absolute lottery penalties are.
Because even the biggest names, the most cold, steely-eyed, shark-faced strikers can really fuck it up. And that's why I love it. If you go out on penalty, if you lose on penalties, it's, do you know what?
If you lose on penalties, there is zero shame in that. Because anything can happen. As we saw last night, that Paraguay shoot, so like Fintan, so Germany, first penalty unsuccessful, that was Kai Havertz.
And I love Havertz, I'm a big fan. So that was Havertz, right? So, Germany took the first penalty, Paraguay scored theirs, Germany scored their second, Paraguay scored their second.
Germany scored their third, Paraguay scored their third. So, you got three to two with two penalties left.
Anyway, but then Paraguay, Paraguay fluffed their next two penalties. It was extraordinary. It's like you just needed to score one of those because Germany fluffed another one.
There was a tremendous set. Also in Germany, Manuel Neuer was in goal. One of the greatest goalkeepers of the last 30 years.
He's a tremendous goalkeeper. He does a beautiful save. When he does that save, and it's a fantastic save, when he does that save, you think, oh shit, here we go.
Here we go. The commentators are gonna start trotting out lines like, oh, these Germans, they've been terribly efficient, haven't they? It's shit like that.
But he made, and they still went out. Oh, it was good. That's why I was so tired.
After I dropped the kids off this morning, I went back to bed for a nap because I stayed up to watch that. It's really bad. Sorry.
Matt: I will say this. Now, I do have to mention something about golf at some point.
This is a good connection to what is, of course, the theme of the show of gambling is the futures markets now. With all the excitement and storylines of the top dogs going out, we especially here in the United States, specifically with Caesars right now, and with a little bit of concern at DraftKings, America put a lot of money on Team USA. Most of it was a nostalgic bet.
It's like, put money on Team USA, put money on Team USA. Most thought Team USA wasn't going to go that far. However, they wanted to be part of the action.
And yes, mathematically, they only have a 2.6% chance of winning the World Cup. That's what it comes down to. However, in the futures market, what a lot of people don't understand, the whole percentage is very different than the whole percentage of an individual match.
In most cases, a sports book will have a whole percentage of between 4% and 5%, you know, so all the money goes out, one side wins, you pay the other side, the book keeps 4% to 5%. Now, the actual official number of a futures market has a bit of a wider range, but most individuals will accept a 20% to 30% range on most futures bets, meaning who's going to win X championship, the Premier League, the Super Bowl, the World Cup, whatever that's going to be. Sportsbooks love it because it's very profitable for them.
It's a 20% to 30% takeout versus your traditional 4% to 5%. As long as your favorites or top teams tend to perform and win, it becomes very lucrative. What you run into though, and this is a very fun storyline that I am loving following right now is, when your top dogs go out, a Germany loss, for example, you now have a business model that if one of your, as you said, dark horses come through and win, is going to be very crushing for sportsbooks.
Now, the US has a, as I said, a 2.6% chance of winning the World Cup this year. However, Caesar's staff is quoted right now saying that if the Team USA would win, it would go down in history as the biggest financial loss for Caesar's sportsbook in the history of gambling, which is pretty cool. Not, you know, we don't want to seem to go out of business or anything like that, because then how would I make a living?
But from a perspective, though, of that storyline, that's pretty significant. So, what I think is also going to draw a lot of attention is going to be, Matt Birkendike said that, his exact quote was, the US is by far the worst result in the book, specifically because of tournament patriotic money, as he's calling it. Plus, very good, successful, early performance.
And if it's lost, could be the biggest loss he has ever experienced on a soccer tournament in the history of gambling. Very cool on that. So anyways, I say this because this is also going to be a very interesting storyline now being added into the world of the World Cup.
And from an American perspective, while we all love to gamble, while we all love to be part of this world, while it's taken off and it's been exponential growth and convicted until 2030 here in the States, one thing we love more than winning money is watching a sportsbook lose money. So you're going to have so many casual fans, not only rooting for the US because, you know, we love America, it's America's 250th birthday, XYZ, blah, blah, blah. They want to see the sportsbook go down.
They want to see this, they kind of have this like David versus Goliath kind of mentality of the little guy, the better never wins. Are they going to take down the house? Look, if I put my math card on here and my statistical card on here, yeah, USA, 2.5, 2.6% chance of being champion.
It's probably not going to happen. If I put my sports fan hat on, I'd love to see her run.
There's a chance, there's a percentage chance, there's a chance.
Exactly. So, but it goes back to a business model that sports books now really have to start to wrestle with. Years and years ago, when you didn't have as many options or you had a very solid European model that wasn't really mainstream in the United States because of the offshore books, you could sustain a loss at an underdog winning a championship.
But now with the amount of money that's involved, an underdog winning a championship is a huge significant business impact to an industry that is already only looking at a 5% profitability growth every year because of how the model works. And so many players at the stage or players in the field, in a sense like there's multiple different companies, there's multiple different websites, there's so many people looking for that slice of pie of revenue that you take a loss, it could be very significant. And that's going to play out.
And I'm very curious how that works because I will tell you right now, Americans love that patriotic money. Growing up here in New England, we had the course of the New England Patriots. Yes, we're very original.
We just put new in front of everything over here in the States. But this year, nobody thought the Patriots were going to make the Super Bowl. They were plus 7,500 to even make the game.
But working at a sports book in New England, everybody comes in over the course of six or seven months and goes, give me 100 bucks in the Patriots. You never know. Give me 100 bucks in the Patriots.
You never know. Patriots were plus 7,500, Seattle was plus 7,200. Those were the Super Bowl teams this year. It was a big hit. And now you have this kind of thing.
Jon: Did they not learn anything from Leicester City? Because in the UK, after Leicester City won the Premiership, nobody gives 5,000 to one odds on any team when in the Premier League anymore. It just doesn't happen.
Matt: Patriots, I believe, were 2 and 2 at the time, and Seattle was 1 and 2, and were at the start of the season. And it was the best financial backing for that. To answer your question, no.
By the way, this is my one prediction for individuals. We saw this in 2021-22 in the States with the Baltimore Orioles. The Washington Nationals opened up the year at plus 100,000 to 1 to win the World Series.
They dropped all the way down to 50,000 to 1. They're still holding at 50,035. The team right now is 43 and 43, or 43 and 42 depending on last night.
I forget to look. We lost the Red Sox. Everybody thought they'd be out.
Baltimore was in the same boat. It got to the end of August and Baltimore was in a position where they were like a game out of the wild card and had an actual chance of winning the World Series. And everybody had these futures bets were like literally writing articles sweating.
My one prediction is, do I think Washington's gonna win the World Series? Nope, but it's a hell of a hedge bet right now. If they continue their hot bats for another month and a half, that plus 50,000 would go down to a significant amount of money to where now you have some fun times and some fun plays.
So, no, we haven't learned. And is there value out there in the betting market? Absolutely.
Jon: Yeah, just some $10 bets. You're like, and that's the mortgage.
Fintan: Because obviously, the... Caesar's putting out the press release is good marketing, right? It's easy coverage.
Matt: Of course it is.
Fintan: And Caesar's been at risk of losing the most they've ever lost on a soccer game. Doesn't actually mean it's going to be a significant financial hit compared to any given Sunday type thing, right?
Matt: Correct. And...
Fintan: So like, is there actually that much being wagered on the World Cup?
Matt: I won't know that... We won't know the final figures. I can only say from a predictive standpoint, there's two trends that I've observed in the last six years being in the industry.
One is people want to gamble and they'll bet on anything. Case in point, I mentioned this in the beginning, Russian ping pong at 3 o'clock in the morning. That's what's on.
Let's get some money in that. So you do have people that want to be involved with nothing else to bet. So that's kind of a pathway.
You also have a lot of individuals that are already coming off of, I used to wager on... We just had the March Madness tournament, we had the Super Bowl, we had the NFL Playoffs. I was a new customer, I want to be part of that.
So I eventually guess the answer is yes. I think whatever estimate that comes out might be a little bit less than whatever is being estimated right now. We'll have to see kind of what goes on from there.
Fintan: Yeah. I suppose we could just look at the prediction markets as well in terms of audio.
Matt: 90, I want to say it was 11 billion right now, 11.9 billion wagered on prediction markets at this time. So perfect example of...
Fintan: Does that include the buy and the sell?
Matt: I don't know. I'm only going off of figures that were reported by NBC in their Sunday breakdown, and it was 11.9. I think what the 11.9 is is the total revenue volume that's gone through.
Fintan: Okay. Interesting.
Matt: But it makes for a fun storyline, and so does of course the world involved.
Fintan: It's good PR. It's good PR.
Matt: Exactly.
Jon: Yeah. The key word in what Matt was, what Matt cited, Caesar's saying was of course, in a football tournament, it's like, yeah, they're probably not paid that much out, but this is a big tournament for gambling in the US, Fintan. Wait and see. Wait and see.
Fintan: I'm going to get-- Matt's agreeing with you.
Matt: I'm looking forward to how this is going to play out, and look, if the United States happens to pull off a win, that'd be kind of cool. I'll also mention this though, I am my favorite meal to eat is fish and chips. It's always been like that.
It is my favorite food item of all time. When England and the United States ever get together or there's World Cup matches, that's usually my bet. So, one of two things tends to happen, either get a free fish and chip dinner or I have to buy one for somebody, but it doesn't matter because I still get to eat my favorite meal.
So, my wagering a lot of times with people when it is involving England and the United States in any type of World Cup thing is a fish and chip dinner. So, I'm hoping to catch a few of those.
Jon: Do you know what my usual bet is on the World Cup, right? Almost every tournament they've qualified for since about 94, I think, certainly since 98, probably starting in the 98 tournament. I've bet on Mexico to win the World Cup.
Matt: Okay.
Jon: And this tournament I didn't.
Fintan: What?
Jon: And they've started. They've been flying.
Fintan: Mate, the World Cup is famous for home team advantage. As like an influencing factor.
Jon: Well, Canada slipped up there, haven't they? Because Canada came second in their group, so they've lost home advantage. But I just didn't.
Fintan: You're Canadian and you're in America.
Jon: The thing is though, part of the host team advantage, you got to think about this, right? There's host team advantage, but is part of that, the fact that you didn't have to go through a very demanding set of qualifying ties. Are you just a bit better rested?
Fintan: No, I think it's basic stuff like, you know the food, right time zone, you've acclimatized.
Jon: I don't doubt that that's all part of it. I don't doubt that that's all part of it.
Fintan: Fan engagements.
Jon: But the further they go in the tournament, they're not going to be playing in Mexico.
Fintan: For sure, but I think there's an advantage, like the Mexican team and most, like if Mexico are playing in Miami, that's still a hard thing.
Jon: Dude, dude, nobody's going to turn up. There'll be ICE officers in the car park.
Fintan: It'll be a really bad day.
Jon: They'll be at the train stations, at the bus stations. It will be the quietest stadium in the tournament.
Fintan: I don't think so. I don't think so.
Matt: I, I, I, as somebody who lives in Washington, DC., I'm skeptical. I think it's going to be loud.
Jon: I hope so.
Fintan: There'll be too many people. It's the, there'll be just too many people to potentially arrest. Like, it'll be impossible.
Jon: Wow.
Fintan: I don't think you're going to, I don't think if Mexico run deep, you're not going to stop Mexican fans.
Jon: Knowing what, knowing how things have been done by certain administrations, which will go nameless, it's not out of the question for the entire Mexico squad to be arrested.
Matt: It's, listen, one thing I've said, I'm not surprised at anything that happens over here anymore. The shock and awe factor in the United States has now been eliminated.
Jon: But there was a point made by Gary Lineker, who for anybody listening who's not that familiar, he was a famous English striker and he's been a TV host on the main football program for 20 years. He made a really interesting point. He said, this is the first World Cup where one of the competing nations has been at war with the host nation.
I'm like, holy shit, he's right. He's absolutely 100 percent right.
Matt: Well, technically, we can't classify it as a war, it's a conflict and now, let's talk golf. Let's talk golf.
Jon: Yeah. Let's not talk semantics, let's talk golf.
Matt: I am super pumped about that. Now, I knew it growing up as the British Open, but it has now been rebranded to the Open Championship, because for obvious reasons, it's not just in Britain. So, this year's 154th Open Championship, Royal Berkdale.
That'll be the 11th time it's being a host site for that, July 16th to the 26th. There's some fun storylines that I think are going to play out here, both from a casual fan perspective and some really good value on the betting market that will kind of come into the golf world. Being growing up, and I don't remember, we went through my background last time.
Undergrad at Penn State University in Golf Management, PGA affiliation. So golf, played this morning in Chase and Geese. These are always the big things we watched.
Working as a golf professional for a number of years, it was always a big thing everybody asked questions like, who's going to win? Who's going to win? I'd always say, there's a lot of golfers out there.
I'm not going to tell you who's going to win because that's always hard, but I can at least give you some fun individuals to watch for and what are some cool storylines and some nice long shots to take a look at. So that was my thought process when I was looking at that. But I've always been a fan of the open and the link style courses across the pond because it's a different form of golf.
America, we're very park line. And to those that don't understand the difference, park line is a hole that's surrounded by trees, just a straight fairway. Think of a runway on a plane.
You're hitting straight to the right or to the left and surrounded by trees. Links, wide open, huge effect by the wind, pot style bunkers, giant circles that are extremely, like next to impossible to get out where you're sitting over at Muir Field and you're hitting your shot for the fourth time in a tournament and want to hurl your club at the cameraman but can't because you know you'll be banned from Muir Field and kicked out. True story in my opinion right there.
Made a nine in that hole that day. So, it's a fun different atmosphere for us to take a look at and I'm excited for this year's this year's open.
So of course, the question you want to ask is, what did you put together in your algorithm and how did you bet it?
So here's what I did. This was my breakdown. I looked at a bunch of different categories and we weighed the model at different percentages.
So coming in at the highest weight was at 22 percent. What is the betting market signal? Meaning, what are the actual crowds and individuals betting on?
If you look at and read any of the last gambling books, last five years, many people will tell you that the crowd factor is a factor in betting and is usually intends to be correct, which is why we have favorites, which is why we have that structure. So you have to take into account where is all the money going and why do people think this team is going to win. Prediction markets have shown us this.
There's a 72 percent chance of this happening. The crowd has shown this kind of factor. So we'll get 22 percent of what the market is going, meaning that takes on a weight.
Twenty percent of my model looks at the current form of the player and their FedEx Cup position, meaning how well are they doing right now? Are they on the up? Are they ranked?
Where are they ranked in the FedEx Cup across the board? 17 percent of the model looked at major championship resumes. Players who have either won majors and are less likely, as I call it.
To be overwhelmed by Sunday pressure, wind, or chaos. I use chaos because last year, Travelers Championship is our home course here in Connecticut. It's about 20 miles up the road and they had a bunch of guys run on the field at 18 and throw smoke things that spray the smoke on the 18.
Fintan: Is the Travelers one at the end, was like the big amphitheater at the end where everyone's just talking?
Matt: Yes.
Fintan: It's like a massive party, is that Travelers?
Matt: You're thinking of TPC Scottsdale, that's the 16th hole. Yes, that happens, but also we're all drinking, we're just not as rowdy. Same amphitheater, same hole finish, same structure, just not as rowdy in Connecticut.
In TPC, the Waste Management Open, yeah, that's the rowdy one. Yes. That's 70 percent of the model.
Are your playing styles a fit to what I call it the Burkdale fit or a link style type of golf course? And what we're rewarding is trajectory, control, patience, the ability to lag putt. I looked at the stat of lag putting because those greens are huge.
It's not the same traditional American greens. And bunker avoidance. Are you staying out of those terrible bunker sands?
I looked at their ball striking techniques from Trackman Technology and CourseFit Profile, driving control. Basically, can you keep the ball in the fairway and not 50 feet to the right or left? Short game putting, 6%.
Volatility and weather, as I'm sure you guys are much more familiar than I am. It's not a typical weather day over in the, you know, up in that area, it's not a typical weather day. And then health, rest and schedule narrative at 4%.
So those are my probability models that I took into account in factoring in. And what did that tell me? Okay, it told me a very standard thing that we all think is pretty common.
One of the top world ranking players, Scotty Scheffler, my model says has a 14.8% chance of winning. Right behind him at 11%, 11.8% is Rory McIlroy. Okay, these make sense.
Jon Rahm coming in at 6.7%. Here's my betting value fan favorite, love him, watched him play last year up here in Connecticut. Heartbreaking loss to Keegan Bradley.
Tommy Fleetwood at 6.1%. Right around plus 1,500 to win the tournament. Fun fan person, individual who is coming in with some experience on the international scale.
Xander Schauffele at 6%. Matt Fitzpatrick coming off a strong day one, day two opening of the US Open, then faltering. If I want a good pick for a day one successful person or a cash out or potentially like making the top, Matt Fitzpatrick, excellent, kind of long shot on that one.
Then the rest kind of come in at that 4% kind of ranking across the board on that one. My top five, Scotty Rury, John Rom, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick are all ones that like who's going to win. I have a high predictive value that that's going to be our group looking at Sunday.
If I get four of the six of those, I'd be very happy with that.
Fintan: But golf odds are quite not generous, but like you can bet on a range of golfers and still be plus EV for the weekend, right?
Matt: Yes, you can. Not only that, you can bet on golfers in the top five, top 10, and top 20 finishes as well. So there's tons of value in a golfer winning, a golfer finishing the top five, the top 10.
So Jordan Spieth, for example, is not even on my leaderboard of a golfer that could win, but he won it in 2017. He's had some up and down roller coaster success. He's a bit of a long shot, but that's a perfect bet of like, I've won it in 2017, I've been here before, I know the course, I've been “playing good, I've been playing bad, I'm rocking back and forth.
Jordan finishing in the top 10, high value on that in terms of odds, you're probably going to get a plus 2000, if not maybe about a plus 2500 on your money line odds there, which would be great. Shane Lowry is another long shot, that prediction on the win, but top five, top 10, I very much like that one. Min Wu Li as well, huge variance upside play, roller coaster drama that I kind of like on that one.
But my best long shot actually is Chris Gotterup. He's at plus 4000 right now, but his in my algorithm actually has one of the best successful plans. If I look at all these factors to actually have some success on that.
So, what's my best fan story and best, like I want to get a bet in because I want to be part of the action and be a local person, see things on that one. Tommy Fleetwater, Jordan Sweet, my best person to shake up those top six is Shane Lowry, and my best outright winner at the highest value is Chris Gotterup. And, you know, I think we're going to see, and okay, so like Matt, you're throwing all this out there. How did you do on the Masters? I had the top five, I had four of the top five golfers in the Masters last year. That model, very profitable, very successful, using some of the same strategies over here.
The really big thing I like is, where do you stand with your major championship resume? Have you been there before? So I like that kind of stuff.
Yeah, that's my breakdown looking at that, where I see really strong value across the board, and why I think we're going to see a couple of good things happen over there, and who I think is going to be there on Sunday.
I'll throw one more name out at you, Sam Burns. Sam Burns is at plus 6,000 right now on VET 365, but he finished runner-up in the US Open over here. So the man is playing quite well right now.
Is a person that's sitting kind of in that range. I don't hate the odds and the structure on that. So that's what it comes down to.
But kind of going back to what I started with at the end of just putting things together from this weighing model of what I think is going to work, and seeing how it comes out, and kind of testing back and forth. This will be just another fun lesson in the classroom of guys take multiple variables, run this, run statistical correlations and see that works, and then kind of put this together. We're going to run the same model, not from a betting purpose, but from our men's basketball team, and figure out what are some of our more efficient locations on the court for taking shots at that lead us the highest value, the highest points.
So, but I get to wrap it around golf and something that I love, and I'm looking forward to a bunch of fun storylines. The fun thing to do if you really want to entertain your friends though, with the Open Championship is there's a time difference. So they have the live, what's going on early in the morning, and they also have the replay.
So in the evening over here in the States, go watch with your friends and tell them a bunch of things that you already know are going to happen, and they'll think you're a genius predicting how the course is going to go, because it's already on a time delay, and most people won't pay attention to that in the late hours. So I've always used that joke from time to time on that end. And my golf tip, okay, everybody goes, Matt, you're a PGA pro, how do you get out of those giant pop bunkers?
What do you do? What do I do for that? The biggest tip I give everybody is you're taking your hands on your backswing and literally trying to take your hands and push them into the sky.
So instead of a long gated high arc backswing, it's taking the hands and raising them extremely high in the air, like you're punching the sky, sort of a direct reach up and chop down at the bunker on that one. That's going to give you your most loft. So most golfers, when they're in their amateur states, will just take this elongated backswing, kind of, I'm going to come out super far, big arc.
And what you really want to do is a short, compacted backswing that almost goes straight up in the air and comes straight down in a slicing motion. That'll get you the most loft and get you out of those pop bunkers when you do your business trips over there and play St. Andrews and all those courses and jubilee and stuff.
Fintan: Noted. I'll write that down. Thank you.
Jon: How is your golf coming on, Fintan?
Fintan: Not so good, not so good. I was doing lessons and then work and life got in the way and I haven't been doing any more lessons. So, I've lost.
But my brother-in-law came over and he's an avid golfer, and he took my son out and they went and played a round the golf, and they had a great day. So my son, I've caught him watching golf now in his bedroom. So, he's getting, I know, yeah, it's like a nerd.
Matt: One nice thing I've said about the game of golf is there's very few sports that you can play. There's two things about golf that I very much love. One, it's a sport that you usually carry your entire life with.
Once you learn it, it kind of stays with you. Because of the handicap and scoring system, it's one of the few sports that you can play against anyone in a competitive manner. I can't go on a basketball court and play in the NBA, but I can give my brother six or seven strokes for handicap purposes and match up.
Because of T-box structure, play him in a competitive manner where we're both putting our biggest effort in to try to be successful in that matchup. You don't see that too often in sports. I've always had a passion about that, because it's “very inclusive, and it's something that stays with you the rest of your life.
So when you tell stories like that, I'm always happy to hear somebody taking on the game early, because it's usually something that sticks with them for a long time.
Fintan: He had a great day. It really resonated. And it's his uncle and stuff as well, so he loves it. It was really nice. Amazing, Matt.
Jon: You should probably get back out there, Fintan.
Fintan: I know, I know, I know. I've just got to find the time. I'm just too busy, executive. But anyway, Matt, thank you so much.
Jon: Thank you, Matt.
Matt: Thanks for having me. I love the humor with you guys and the conversation. So, I appreciate you guys having me on and letting me pick your brain for about an hour and a half on some of the things that I'm really passionate about.
And hopefully get to see you in 2027 when we come over with our students in March. And looking forward to some more stuff here in the States for our official launch of our sports management program in fall 2026. Although very happy with where we stand right now.
Jon: Good luck with that.
Matt: Thank you so much, guys.
Jon: Thank you, Matt. If you've enjoyed this episode of The Gambling Files podcast, please find us on LinkedIn. Give us a big juicy succulent like.
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