This piece features a Q&A with American University’s Matthew Bakowicz on why he projects up to a $4.5 billion betting handle for the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, emphasizing how expansion into new states, media exposure, and evolving bettor behavior are converging to make this March Madness a potential record-setter.

Key takeaways:

1. Bakowicz forecasts a realistic $4 billion and high-end $4.5 billion March Madness handle—above the AGA’s $3.3 billion estimate—driven by continued state‑by‑state legalization, the growth of major brands like FanDuel, and a powerful media push that gets betting information to fans far faster than even five years ago.

2. He argues that ubiquitous streaming, social media, and Super Bowl-to-March Madness marketing funnels—plus features like live betting and easy cash-out—are pulling more people (especially younger, tech‑savvy fans) into constant, low‑denomination, in‑game wagering to satisfy a desire for quick results and sustained engagement.

3. Prediction markets, which did roughly $900 million in sports event contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi over the last NFL season, are both expanding betting to new demographics (including more women via Oscars/Grammys markets) and quietly siphoning handle from traditional sportsbooks, creating regulatory and economic stakes if federal rules change.

“I am higher than the American Gaming Association, which is coming in at $3.3 billion. I'm looking at, on a best number ever, high side, a total of $4.5 billion. In reality, $4 billion is a better number, and there's a couple of reasons for that" says Matthew Bakowicz. 

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