From the economy to tech and the pursuit of future (not to mention current) climate initiatives, the upcoming election looms large on the AU campus, four miles from the White House.
Kogod School of Business
With fall foliage in full swing on the AU campus, all eyes are on the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Sure, the stakes are practically omnipresent no matter where you go in the US, owing to the $10 billion spent on advertising so far this cycle.
But the election holds particular meaning at the Kogod School of Business, just four miles from the White House. Students and faculty learn and work in close proximity to a major world capital at the crossroads of government and business.
This election holds significant stakes for both, depending on who emerges victorious: Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.
With just one day to go until the polls close, here are some of the top issues Kogod’s faculty experts say they’ll be watching—issues that may well hang in the balance based on which candidate is ultimately elected, from finance to climate initiatives and cybersecurity.
Millions of voters across the country remain concerned about the economy, from frustration over the lingering effects of inflation to the former president’s call for tariffs.
We spoke to Professor Jeff Harris, Gary D. Cohn Goldman Sachs Chair in Finance.
Harris: Most economists are worried about Trump’s tariff threat. Generally speaking, tariffs have shut down world economies and largely have been recognized as one of the primary causes of the great depression.
If you look at the other side, the concern has been the hangover we still have from inflation. Many people are still blaming, what do they call it: ‘profligate government spending’ of three years ago for adding into the price levels that resulted in inflation. I think there’s some skepticism associated with the inflationary cycle we just went through with the Democratic Party in power.
One concern I have with the stock market is it seems to be going up. I don’t know if it’s an automatic—people trying to put on blinders and think everything turns out well—but, normally, when you face a situation of uncertainty, prices get discounted because you hate to invest without knowing what the outcome might be, or having a better assessment of the outcome. Generally speaking, I’m concerned that once the resolution happens, the market might correct itself—at least the stock market.
I’m teaching Teaching Investments and grading tests today, and it’s all about risk, uncertainty, and expected return.
I think all that ‘risk’ that we are facing is palpable in the press around here, the environment around campus, and around Washington, DC.
I think people, students in particular, do get a good sense for this uncertainty and how that plays out in their life, and what’s in the press about—are these candidates going to follow through, are they going to moderate, and how that is going to result in their own life.”
Jeff Harris
Professor of Finance, Kogod School of Business
The Biden administration oversaw historic initiatives on climate policy. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, for example, fostered a wave of tax credits, incentives, and innovations related to climate initiatives.
Meanwhile, recent presidential terms have seen the US enter, leave, and return to the critical Paris Climate Agreement depending on the party in power. In all likelihood, the 2024 election will loom large in future decisions about America’s participation.
We spoke to Nicole Darnall, Professor and Kogod Eminent Scholar Chair in Sustainability, Kogod and School of Public Affairs.
Darnall: The US Federal Government is making significant inroads on meeting its global climate commitments by estimating and mitigating its impacts and creating policies encouraging companies to do the same. The outcome of this election will either continue this important progress or wipe it away.
The next presidential administration (and Congress) will face plenty of questions in the realm of cybersecurity, from the regulation of artificial intelligence to foreign adversaries.
We spoke to Shawn Janzen, Professor, Information Technology & Analytics.
Janzen: Much of my area of work involves cybersecurity policy and leadership decision-making, often as it relates to critical infrastructure. For better or worse, unlike policy areas like the economy, immigration, and abortion, this hasn't been a spotlight topic or area upon which either the Harris or Trump campaigns seem to differ much. There will most certainly be differences, but they may take some time to shake out.
One of the potential seismic shifts would be if a future Trump administration follows a Project 2025 recommendation to move CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) to the Department of Transportation.
Critical infrastructure includes, but is far more than, transportation. I think CISA should remain within an agency that can give it the administrative and policy breadth it needs to function well."
Shawn Janzen
Professor of Information Technology and Analytics, Kogod School of Business
The previous Trump administration took strong stances on cyber defense, such as substantially providing a much-needed revision of the US national cyber strategy in 2018, and I suspect a future Trump administration might do the same. The bigger question is with whom they might endeavor those efforts, such as relaxing cyber initiatives with Russia and North Korea.”
On the flipside, I suspect a potential future Harris administration will largely follow the work done under the Biden administration. I think the biggest shift, and in the opposite direction from Trump, would be a further policy focus on misinformation/disinformation.
I anticipate this will include attempts to increase regulatory oversight on the tech sector, particularly over AI development and digital / data privacy—both as separate and overlapping topic areas.
If a future Harris administration is serious on this policy front, they won't replace the current Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan, despite calls to do so by some of Harris' tech-centric donors.
“Overall, I think the biggest differences in a cyber domain between these future Trump and Harris administrations will come down to how and where they permit the federal government to engage in helping people and companies understand what truth or not, and their influence on the role of tech companies in this space from using your information to flagging mis/dis-information.
Such administrative and policy actions will further impact the AI development and (mis)use.”
4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20016
Copyright © 2024 American University.